The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, set to take place in Islamabad on October 15-16, has sparked considerable interest and speculation. The summit will bring together leaders from some of the most influential countries in the world, including Russia, China, India, and Pakistan. However, the long-standing rivalry between India and Pakistan threatens to cast a shadow over the event, raising questions about the future and unity of this significant regional alliance.
India-Pakistan Tensions
India and Pakistan have a tumultuous history, marked by multiple wars, ongoing border disputes, and deep-seated mistrust. The primary source of tension between the two nations is the Kashmir region, a picturesque area in the Himalayas claimed by both countries but fully controlled by neither. The conflict over Kashmir has fueled decades of hostility, with both nations accusing each other of supporting terrorism and destabilizing the region.
Tensions reached a new high in August 2019 when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, which granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir. This move was met with fierce opposition from Pakistan, which saw it as an attempt by India to consolidate its control over the disputed territory. Since then, diplomatic relations between the two countries have been strained, with little hope of reconciliation in sight.
Given this backdrop, the possibility of Prime Minister Modi attending the SCO summit in Islamabad seems slim. Analysts and experts are skeptical that Modi would visit Pakistan, a country with which India has such fraught relations, particularly in the current climate. His absence could have significant implications for the SCO, an organization that both Russia and China view as crucial to their geopolitical strategies.
The SCO's Role and Importance
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, founded in 2001, is a political, economic, and security alliance that aims to foster cooperation among its member states. The organization includes China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and, most recently, Iran. The SCO is seen as a counterbalance to Western-led alliances, with Russia and China playing leading roles in its development and direction.
For Russia and China, the SCO is more than just a regional bloc; it’s a platform through which they can project their influence and challenge Western dominance in global affairs. The inclusion of India and Pakistan in the SCO in 2017 was seen as a significant step towards making the organization more inclusive and representative of the broader region. However, the rivalry between these two South Asian giants presents a potential threat to the SCO’s cohesion and effectiveness.
The Impact of Modi's Absence
If Prime Minister Modi chooses not to attend the SCO summit, it could be seen as a major setback for the organization. The absence of the leader of one of the most populous and economically significant countries in the world would be a blow to the SCO’s credibility and unity. For Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who view the SCO as a cornerstone of their regional strategies, this would represent a missed opportunity to showcase the organization’s strength and solidarity.
Moreover, Modi’s absence could deepen the existing divide between India and Pakistan, further complicating efforts to foster regional cooperation. The rivalry between the two countries has already crippled other multilateral organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has not held a summit since 2014 due to the ongoing tensions. There are legitimate concerns that the SCO could face a similar fate if India and Pakistan's disputes continue to overshadow the group’s broader goals.
The SCO’s Resilience: A Different Dynamic
Despite these challenges, there are reasons to believe that the SCO might be better equipped to handle the India-Pakistan rivalry than SAARC. Unlike SAARC, which is primarily a South Asian organization, the SCO is backed by two major global powers—Russia and China. These nations have a vested interest in ensuring the organization’s success and are likely to exert their influence to prevent bilateral issues between India and Pakistan from derailing the summit.
The SCO also has a broader mandate than SAARC, focusing on economic cooperation, security, and political stability across a vast region that includes Central Asia and parts of South Asia. This wider scope and the involvement of other member states help to dilute the impact of any single nation’s actions, including those of India and Pakistan.
Analysts suggest that while the rivalry between India and Pakistan could momentarily shift attention away from the SCO’s core agenda, it is unlikely to derail the organization entirely. The presence of China and Russia as stabilizing forces within the SCO provides a buffer against the disruptions that bilateral tensions might cause. These powers have the diplomatic weight to keep the organization on track, ensuring that the focus remains on collective goals rather than individual disputes.
What’s at Stake for the SCO?
The upcoming SCO summit in Islamabad will be a crucial test for the organization. It will reveal whether the SCO can maintain its cohesion and continue functioning effectively despite the deep-seated animosity between two of its key members. The stakes are high—not just for India and Pakistan, but for the entire region.
If the summit proceeds smoothly, with or without Modi’s attendance, it could demonstrate the SCO’s resilience and ability to manage internal conflicts. Such an outcome would strengthen the organization’s credibility and affirm its role as a significant player in regional and global affairs.
However, if the India-Pakistan rivalry overshadows the summit or leads to disruptions, it could raise questions about the SCO’s ability to function as a unified body. This would be a disappointing outcome for Russia and China, who have invested heavily in the organization as a means to project their influence and counter Western-led initiatives.
