As summer monsoons sweep across Pakistan, they have brought more than rain. In just three weeks, 124 people, including 63 children, have died as floods, collapsing homes, and rising rivers wreak havoc across the country.
Rescue operations continue from the northern valleys of Swat to the flooded streets of Lahore. Officials from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) warn that heavier rains are still expected in the coming days. But both, while meteorologists forecast more rainfall, policy analysts and environmental scientists are sounding a different alarm: Pakistan’s flood crisis is not solely a natural disaster — it is a policy failure in slow motion.
“This is not just about weather,” said Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, an Islamabad-based climate policy expert. “This is about choices we keep making — or refusing to make.”
A Familiar Tragedy
The destruction is grimly familiar. In 2022, catastrophic flooding left 1,700 dead and displaced over 30 million people, many of whom never recovered. The economic damage was estimated at $30 billion, including lost homes, farmland, and livelihoods.
Three years later, the question remains: what has changed?
Despite the scale of the 2022 disaster, Pakistan’s adaptation efforts have been slow and uneven. Many of this year’s deaths, according to the NDMA, were caused by collapsing structures and flash floods in vulnerable areas. In Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — the two most affected provinces — families living in low-income, informal settlements bore the brunt.
Urban planners say the problem is systemic. A 2023 report by UN-Habitat found that over 50% of Pakistan’s urban population lives in unregulated slums, many of which are situated near drainage channels, riverbeds, or unstable slopes. Building codes exist on paper, but enforcement remains elusive.
“You cannot blame the sky for flooding the ground if you keep building homes in the path of rivers,” said Sitara Parveen, an environmentalist and lecturer in Gilgit.
Warming Mountains, Melting Glaciers
Pakistan’s vulnerability is amplified by its geography. The northern region of Gilgit-Baltistan — often called the “third pole” for its vast glacial reserves — has become a climate hotspot.
This year, parts of the region recorded temperatures above 48 degrees Celsius (118°F), even at altitudes above 1,200 meters (4,000 feet). The result: rapid glacial melt and growing fears of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), a type of sudden, destructive flood triggered by glacial lakes bursting their banks.
There are over 13,000 glaciers in Pakistan — more than anywhere outside the polar regions. As they melt faster due to rising global temperatures, downstream communities face increased flood risks, even before the monsoon arrives.
A Global Crisis with Local Fault Lines
While climate change is undeniably a factor, experts argue it has become a convenient scapegoat for what is also a domestic governance crisis.
“Climate change is a global injustice. Pakistan is paying a high price for emissions it didn’t produce,” said Zakir Hussein, Director General of Disaster Management in Gilgit-Baltistan. “But we also must confront our shortcomings — in planning, enforcement, and accountability.”
The lack of climate-focused reform following the 2022 disaster has drawn criticism from both international donors and Pakistani civil society. Despite the pledging of $10 billion in aid at a global donor conference in early 2023, only $2.8 billion has materialized, much of it as loans.
“We speak of resilience, but we still treat every flood as a surprise,” said Sheikh. “Without structural change, no amount of foreign aid will protect Pakistan.”
Hope Amid Warnings
Still, there are signs of progress. The NDMA has implemented early warning systems, identified vulnerable districts, and stockpiled emergency supplies in high-risk areas. But experts stress that preparedness cannot replace prevention.
For many in flood-prone communities, however, options remain limited.
“I don’t want to lose my children to water,” said Ayesha, a mother of three in rural southern Punjab, who lives near a seasonal stream. “But where can we go? This is our land.”
The Unfinished Fight
As the rains intensify and rivers rise, Pakistan stands once again at the intersection of natural vulnerability and institutional inertia. The debate over whether climate change or governance is to blame is less a question of either-or, and more a painful acknowledgment of both.
What remains clear is this: climate disasters may be inevitable, but the scale of human loss is not.
