Is climate change worsening the floods in Pakistan?

In the early part of this week, researchers conducted a hasty analysis to determine the degree to which climate change brought about by humans was responsible for the deadly floods that have befallen parts of Pakistan in recent weeks.

The World Weather Attribution group, an international team of climate experts, believes that human activity is most likely to blame for the record amounts of August precipitation recorded in the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan in Pakistan. They discovered that the places that had been struck the most had had an increase in rainfall of up to 75% during the last several decades.

As a direct result of the tragedy, more than thirty-three million people were affected, roughly 1.7 million dwellings were destroyed, and around 1,400 people lost their lives.  

Researchers looked at historical weather data and the results of contemporary climate models to determine the likelihood of such deluges occurring at a temperature increase of around 1.2 degrees Celsius that has been attributed to human activities since the Industrial Revolution. They contrasted this possibility with the facts and simulations of the climate in the past, when temperatures were 1.2 C lower than they are present. 

It was discovered that the total rainfall during 5 days in Sindh and Balochistan has most likely increased by up to 50% owing to climate change.  

According to the findings, given the current state of the environment, the probability of such a disaster occurring in any given year is around one percent. The likelihood of extreme rainfall has likely increased due to climate change, which would have made the same event substantially less probable in a world free of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. 

According to the climate models that scientists have been developing over the years, the weather in Pakistan has been behaving exactly as predicted. It is also in line with statistics showing an increase in intense rainfall in the region since humans started emitting greenhouse gases in earnest.

Considering the increased precipitation, the predictability of weather is severely affected. Due to the reasons above, the increase in flooding has forced the country’s prerogative to shift to relieve the victims. The situation is only expected to worsen because the atmosphere does not plan to fix itself soon.

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