When Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad on April 12 without a deal, the fear was that diplomacy between Washington and Tehran had run its course. Six days later, that fear remains unresolved, but so does the prospect of peace. What has unfolded since is a furious scramble of shuttle missions, a naval blockade, a contested reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a race against a ceasefire that expires on April 22.
The Immediate Fallout
The public recriminations began within hours of the breakdown. Trump posted on social media that the talks had failed because “IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!“ Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered a different account, the two sides had come within “inches” of understanding before the US “shifted the goalposts” and imposed a naval blockade.¹ US officials disputed that characterisation while privately acknowledging that real progress had been made across more than 21 hours of negotiations.
Neither side, however, fully closed the door. Vance told Fox News that Iranian negotiators had “moved in our direction” but “didn’t move far enough,” and that he still believed a “grand deal” was possible.² The White House confirmed Trump remained open to resuming talks “as soon as he believes Iran is prepared to meet his demands.”³ Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish foreign ministers immediately began working separate phone lines with both Washington and Tehran, urging a return to the table.⁴
The Naval Blockade
On April 13, Trump announced a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports, enforced by over 10,000 personnel, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft. US Central Command clarified that the blockade applied only to vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, it would “not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.“⁵ Ships approaching were warned to turn around or face boarding. In the first 24 hours, 13 vessels complied and reversed course without a single boarding.⁶
The economic pressure on Iran was immediate. The blockade costs Tehran an estimated $400 million a day in lost revenue.⁷ Washington framed it not as a departure from diplomacy but as part of it, a lever to prevent Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz as bargaining leverage.⁸ Iran’s military condemned the blockade as illegal and a ceasefire violation, warning that if its port security was threatened, “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea will be safe.“⁹
The Strait of Hormuz: Opens — Then Closes Again
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas normally flows, has been at the centre of every dimension of this conflict.¹⁰ Iran had been charging tolls of over one million dollars per vessel and vetting cargo and crew through the IRGC before allowing passage. With some 230 loaded tankers waiting inside the Gulf, oil prices surged sharply and threatened to breach $100 per barrel.¹¹
On April 17, Araghchi announced on social media that the strait was “completely open” to all commercial shipping. Oil prices fell 11 per cent immediately.¹² Trump welcomed the announcement on Truth Social, but in the same post insisted the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain “UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE.“¹³ When pressed directly, he was blunt: “When the agreement is signed, the blockade ends.”¹⁴
The celebration lasted less than 24 hours. On the morning of April 18, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that control of the strait had “returned to its previous status” and was now under “strict management and control of the armed forces.”¹⁶ The reason Tehran gave was direct: the continued US naval blockade of its ports, which Iran’s National Security Commission head Ebrahim Azizi described as evidence of “America’s untrustworthiness.”¹⁷ “The dark track record of America since the bieginning of the revolution has proven that untrustworthiness is an inseparable part of Washington’s political doctrine,” he said.¹⁸
The re-closure came as ships were mid-transit. Bloomberg reported that two vessel owners with ships in the area heard radio broadcasts announcing the closure, while several tankers aborted their journeys and turned back.¹⁹ In an alarming escalation, two Iranian IRGC gunboats fired on a commercial tanker in the strait, approximately 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman. The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center confirmed the incident, noting there had been no prior warning, though the tanker and crew were reported safe.²⁰
Iran’s foreign ministry also directly contradicted Trump’s claim that Tehran had agreed to hand over its stockpile of approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent. “Iran’s enriched uranium is not going to be transferred anywhere,” spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told state television.²¹ The gap between Trump’s optimism and Tehran’s stated reality could not have been wider.
Pakistan’s Dual-Track Diplomacy
Pakistan’s role has grown beyond host and mediator into something closer to the structural backbone of this entire process. Following the breakdown, Islamabad activated what it began calling the “Islamabad Process“, a deliberate framing to signal continuity rather than failure.¹⁷
On April 15, Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir led a high-level delegation to Tehran carrying a new message from Washington. He was received warmly by Araghchi, who expressed gratitude for Pakistan’s “gracious hosting of dialogue.”¹⁸ Munir held meetings with Araghchi, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who had led Iran’s delegation in Islamabad, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and IRGC commanders.¹⁹ Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi accompanied the delegation. Pakistani sources told Al Jazeera they were expecting “a major breakthrough on the nuclear front.”²⁰
Simultaneously, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif undertook a four-day regional tour covering Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey’s Antalya Diplomacy Forum to rally wider support and neutralise potential spoilers.²¹ Pakistani security analyst Muhammad Faisal described the approach as deliberately bifurcated: Sharif reassuring Gulf allies while Munir narrowed gaps directly between the two sides.²²
The trust Pakistan commands from both parties is unambiguous. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called Pakistan “the only mediator in this negotiation” and said further talks would “very likely” take place in Islamabad.²³ Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan was categorical: “We will do talks in Pakistan and nowhere else, because we trust Pakistan.”²⁴ Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that “several messages have been exchanged through Pakistan” since the talks ended, with Iranian positions expressed in each exchange.²⁵
What Remains Unresolved
The nuclear gap is the heart of the matter. Washington demanded a 20-year enrichment suspension in Islamabad, Iran offered three to five years. The US wants Iran’s highly enriched uranium removed from the country entirely, Tehran has proposed monitored down-blending instead.²⁶ Iran insists enrichment is a sovereign right, Washington insists it cannot be permitted at weapons-capable levels. Russia has renewed its offer to take Iran’s enriched stockpile as part of a potential deal.²⁷
The ceasefire expires April 22. A second round of talks is expected in Islamabad but has no confirmed date. Both sides are signalling willingness. Whether that is enough, before the clock runs out, is the question on which regional stability now turns.
References
¹ Axios, “Mediators rush to revive U.S.-Iran nuclear talks,” April 13, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/04/13/us-iran-nuclear-talks-ceasefire-deal
² TIME, “Officials Considering Second Round of U.S.-Iran Talks,” April 14, 2026, https://time.com/article/2026/04/14/us-iran-talks-war-ceasefire-trump-nuclear-enrichment-strait-hormuz/
³ Ibid.
⁴ Axios, April 13, 2026
⁵ Wikipedia, Naval blockade of Iran, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_blockade_of_Iran
⁶ CNBC, “Pentagon: Iran blockade near Hormuz Strait deterred 13 ships,” April 16, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/16/trump-iran-war-hormuz-strait-blockade.html
⁷ Wikipedia, Naval blockade of Iran
⁸ Axios, April 13, 2026
⁹ Wikipedia, Naval blockade of Iran
¹⁰ Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis
¹¹ PBS NewsHour, “Why a U.S. blockade on Iran seems to be working,” April 16, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/why-a-u-s-blockade-on-iran-seems-to-be-working
¹² Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
¹³ CBS News Live Updates, April 17–18, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-hezbollah-strait-hormuz/
¹⁴ ABC7 News Live Updates, April 18, 2026, https://abc7news.com/live-updates/iran-war-straight-hormuz-blockade-oil-prices-us-stock-market-ceasefire/18880313/
¹⁵ Ibid.
¹⁶ Wikipedia, 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis
¹⁷ Wikipedia, Islamabad Talks, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamabad_Talks
¹⁸ Al Jazeera, “Hopes grow for a breakthrough in US-Iran talks,” April 16, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/hopes-grow-for-a-breakthrough-in-us-iran-talks-as-pakistan-mediates
¹⁹ Al Jazeera, “Can Pakistan secure Iran-US nuclear compromise?” April 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/17/can-pakistan-secure-iran-us-nuclear-compromise-as-trump-says-deal
²⁰ Al Jazeera, “Pakistan army chief in Tehran,” April 15, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/pakistan-army-chief-in-tehran-to-advance-next-round-of-us-iran-talks
²¹ Global Times, “Pakistan ramps up mediation efforts,” April 16, 2026, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202604/1359124.shtml
²² Al Jazeera, “No date set for US-Iran talks,” April 16, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/16/no-date-set-for-us-iran-talks-as-pakistan-pushes-to-keep-diplomacy-alive
²³ CNBC, “U.S. and Iran could meet in Pakistan for peace talks,” April 15, 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/trump-iran-war-peace-talks-pakistan.html
²⁴ Al Jazeera, “No date set for US-Iran talks,” April 16, 2026
²⁵ Al Jazeera, “Hopes grow for a breakthrough,” April 16, 2026
²⁶ NBC News, “U.S. and Iran could hold new peace talks,” April 15, 2026, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-iran-new-peace-talks-trump-vance-hormuz-nuclear-enrichment-rcna331669
²⁷ TIME, “Officials Considering Second Round,” April 14, 2026
